Digital Assets Research · Investment ThesisNEAR Hackathon 2026 · Investment Thesis Track
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) · Cross-chain infrastructure · Data to
1 · ResilientAfter a freeze and a $3.8M hack, 1Click volume counted swap by swap was against August, and most large integrators kept routing.
2 · Not a real dropFrom late October public swap volume fell by almost two-thirds. Usage did not: the swaps moved to confidential settlement, the big apps kept routing, and sampled swaps leaving a public record went from to .
3 · Little for holdersThe wallets that receive Intents' revenue take in of the NEAR that NEAR issues. To cover it all, the inflow would have to grow about .
4 · No rule protects itNone of it is paid to holders, staked or burned. A few signers can move it.
The rating. Keep NEAR you own, staked; do not add yet. Buy when the wallets take in NEAR a day for three months.
Method Public wallets and swaps counted onchain; a pre-registered event study in the appendixSources DefiLlama, CoinGecko, NEAR BigQuery, NEAR Intents Explorer APIRead the full thesis →Predictions and rating rule →
Share of new NEAR supply that reaches Intents' revenue wallets
Key takeaways
Exhibit 1
Swap by swap, 1Click volume did not leave
7-day average of daily volume. 1Click: every successful 1Click swap of $100 or more (about 99% of 1Click dollars), from NEAR Intents' Explorer API, which still sees swaps that settle confidentially. Public swaps: what NEAR's chain shows (BigQuery). DefiLlama: total Intents volume, of which 1Click is a part.
1Click (Explorer API)Public swaps (BigQuery)DefiLlama total
Source: NEAR Intents Explorer API, NEAR public BigQuery dataset, DefiLlama · Code: src/fetch_explorer.py · Queries: sql/intents_swap_trace.sql, sql/intents_stable_volume_daily.sql · Added after the pre-registration
Exhibit 2
Who routes the flow: a handful of integrators, and large-swap volume held
Next four integratorsEveryone else
Source: NEAR Intents Explorer API, author's calculations · Code: src/fetch_explorer.py, src/build.py · Added after the pre-registration
Exhibit 3
The public record shrank when 1Click swaps moved to Confidential Intents
Left: share of Intents volume visible as public onchain swaps (7-day): the stablecoin side of every token_diff swap, counted once, logged by intents.near (NEAR BigQuery) over DefiLlama's total. Right, with no DefiLlama at all: receipts a day on intents.near that log a public swap, against those that move funds to or from the Treasury account behind Confidential Intents. NEAR Intents' changelog: "From October 27, 2026, 1Click swaps settle confidentially."
Share visible as public swaps
Receipts through the TreasuryPublic swaps
Source: NEAR public BigQuery dataset, DefiLlama, NEAR Intents changelog, author's calculations · Queries: sql/intents_stable_volume_daily.sql, sql/intents_confidential_daily.sql · Added after the pre-registration
Exhibit 4
NEAR held by the three wallets that receive Intents' captured revenue (front-end fund, 1Click fund, buybacks wallet), daily, from NEAR's BigQuery dataset. DefiLlama defines Intents revenue as the NEAR swept into these wallets.
Source: NEAR public BigQuery dataset, DefiLlama adapter source, author's calculations · Query: sql/revenue_wallets_daily.sql · Added after the pre-registration
Exhibit 5
Reported volume against its model: no detectable loss, but the size depends on the comparison venues
7-day average of daily Intents volume, actual and predicted. The model is built from rival venues and NEAR and ZEC spot volume, fitted 1 Jun – 7 Sep, so it shows what the market alone would have produced. Shaded: the pre-registered 28-day window. The chart uses the narrower set of comparison venues; with the set as pre-registered the 28-day estimate is (deviation 1).
MissedThe public record leaves.The share of volume visible as public swaps fell from to ; from late October public swaps fell while executed intents doubled (Exhibit 3).
Partly rightPublic activity weakens.
ShownWhy the record left.
Exhibit 6
The engine: Intents volume and revenue since launch
Monthly volume
Monthly protocol revenue
Source: DefiLlama, author's calculations · Code: src/build.py, long-term view in main() · Added after the pre-registration
Show data
Tripwires: when the thesis is wrong
Signal
Latest 28d
Limit
Status
Recomputed on every build. Limits come from the calm period before either event.
Predictions: what the thesis says happens next
Call
Resolves
If it fails
P1 · Flow stays durable.Every 28-day window ending 8 Dec 2026 – 31 Mar 2027 stays above the order-flow limit (abnormal volume above −29.5%).
31 Mar 2027
Durability fails
P2 · Growth comes back.A new monthly volume record, above September 2026's $4.80B, in December 2026 – March 2027.
31 Mar 2027
Growth fails; go neutral
P3 · Price holds.Every 28-day window ending 8 Dec 2026 – 31 Mar 2027 keeps the take rate above 13.6 bps.
31 Mar 2027
Revenue per dollar falls
Scored only on data after 10 Nov 2026. The current file is RATING.md (rating, rule and five calls, timestamped 11 Nov 2026). The first version, timestamped in Bitcoin block 975308, is kept unchanged in archive/; make test checks both proofs.
Exhibit 7
Onchain: established accounts pulled back; new and heavy users did not
Accounts signing their own intents.near transactions, per day
Source: NEAR public BigQuery dataset, author's calculations · Query: sql/intents_signers_daily.sql · Code: src/build.py, H5 in main()
Exhibit 8
Against the full calm period the result is ordinary; against the summer it is weak